A new poll was just started on this blog concerning the unemployment numbers to be released January 7, 2011. The Employment Situation Report was released last Friday showing the unemployment rate for November. It increased from 9.6% to 9.8%.
We hosted a non-scientific poll asking respondents their projections for the November number in the weeks leading up to the December 3 release data. The question, possible answers, and results were as follows:
What do you think the unemployment rate will be for November 2010?
9.6% (unchanged) 12 (50%)
greater than 9.6% 5 (20%)
less than 9.6% 7 (30%)
The actual number for November was 9.8%, up from 9.6%. Many experts believed that the number would actually fall to 9.4-9.5%, and were obviously wrong. 20% of voters in our poll were right, voting for a number greater than 9.6%.
For the next several months this blog will host similar polls (the one for the December number was just opened). Results of the polls through March will be compared to the actual numbers in the March 2010 issue of Roanomics.
Make sure you enter your vote! See how well you can predict one of the more popular economic indicators.